High-Risk Features of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Following Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation: Patients for whom Surgery Should Not Be Delayed.
Annals of surgery
washington; swedish; swedish thoracic
OBJECTIVE: Clinical predictors of pathological complete response have not reliably identified patients for whom an organ-sparing approach following neoadjuvant chemoradiation be undertaken for esophageal cancer patients. We sought to identify high-risk predictors of residual carcinoma that may preclude patients from a selective surgical approach.
BACKGROUND DATA: Patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by esophagectomy for esophageal adenocarcinoma were identified.
METHODS: Correlation between clinical and pathologic complete responses were examined. Regression models and recursive partitioning were utilized to identify features associated with residual carcinoma. External validation of these high-risk factors was performed on a dataset from an independent institution.
RESULTS: 326 patients were identified, in whom clinical complete response was noted in 104/326 (32%). Pathologic complete response was noted in only 33/104 (32%) of these clinical complete responders. Multivariable analysis identified that the presence of stricture (P=0.011), positive biopsy (P=0.010), and signet ring cell histology (P=0.019) were associated with residual cancer. Recursive partitioning corroborated a 94% probability of residual disease, or greater, for each of these features. The positive predictive value was greater than 90% for these characteristics. A SUVmax>5.4 at the esophageal primary in the absence of esophagitis was also a high-risk factor for residual carcinoma. External validation confirmed these high-risk factors to be implicated in the finding of residual carcinoma.
CONCLUSIONS: Clinical parameters of response are poor predictors of complete pathologic response leading to challenges in selecting candidates for active surveillance. However, we characterize several high-risk features for residual carcinoma which indicate that esophagectomy should not be delayed.
Bayley, Erin M; Ivy, Megan L; Shewale, Jitesh B; Ge, Phillip S; Antonoff, Mara B; Francis, Ashleigh M; Hofstetter, Wayne L; Mehran, Reza J; Rajaram, Ravi; Rice, David C; Roth, Jack A; Sepesi, Boris; Vaporciyan, Ara A; Walsh, Garrett L; Lee, J Jack; Louie, Brian E; and Swisher, Stephen G, "High-Risk Features of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Following Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation: Patients for whom Surgery Should Not Be Delayed." (2022). Articles, Abstracts, and Reports. 6504.