Predictive model for achieving good clinical and radiographic outcomes at one-year following surgical correction of adult cervical deformity.
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
7-1-2021
Publication Title
J Craniovertebr Junction Spine
Keywords
washington; seattle; swedish; swedish neurosciences
Abstract
Background: For cervical deformity (CD) surgery, goals include realignment, improved patient quality of life, and improved clinical outcomes. There is limited research identifying patients most likely to achieve all three.
Objective: The objective is to create a model predicting good 1-year postoperative realignment, quality of life, and clinical outcomes following CD surgery using baseline demographic, clinical, and radiographic factors.
Methods: Retrospective review of a multicenter CD database. CD patients were defined as having one of the following radiographic criteria: Cervical sagittal vertical axis (cSVA) >4 cm, cervical kyphosis/scoliosis >10°° or chin-brow vertical angle >25°. The outcome assessed was whether a patient achieved both a good radiographic and clinical outcome. The primary analysis was stepwise regression models which generated a dataset-specific prediction model for achieving a good radiographic and clinical outcome. Model internal validation was achieved by bootstrapping and calculating the area under the curve (AUC) of the final model with 95% confidence intervals.
Results: Seventy-three CD patients were included (61.8 years, 58.9% F). The final model predicting the achievement of a good overall outcome (radiographic and clinical) yielded an AUC of 73.5% and included the following baseline demographic, clinical, and radiographic factors: mild-moderate myelopathy (Modified Japanese Orthopedic Association >12), no pedicle subtraction osteotomy, no prior cervical spine surgery, posterior lowest instrumented vertebra (LIV) at T1 or above, thoracic kyphosis >33°°, T1 slope<20 >mm.
Conclusions: Achievement of a positive outcome in radiographic and clinical outcomes following surgical correction of CD can be predicted with high accuracy using a combination of demographic, clinical, radiographic, and surgical factors, with the top factors being baseline cSVA <20 >mm, no prior cervical surgery, and posterior LIV at T1 or above.
Clinical Institute
Neurosciences (Brain & Spine)
Clinical Institute
Orthopedics & Sports Medicine
Department
Neurosciences
Department
Orthopedics
Recommended Citation
Passias, Peter Gust; Horn, Samantha R; Oh, Cheongeun; Poorman, Gregory W; Bortz, Cole; Segreto, Frank; Lafage, Renaud; Diebo, Bassel; Scheer, Justin K; Smith, Justin S; Shaffrey, Christopher I; Eastlack, Robert; Sciubba, Daniel M; Protopsaltis, Themistocles; Kim, Han Jo; Hart, Robert A; Lafage, Virginie; Ames, Christopher P; and International Spine Study Group, "Predictive model for achieving good clinical and radiographic outcomes at one-year following surgical correction of adult cervical deformity." (2021). Articles, Abstracts, and Reports. 5469.
https://digitalcommons.providence.org/publications/5469
